A Native, A Wristwatch, and The Scientific Method

There's this retired magician who used to go by the name The Amazing Randi and since hanging up his wand, he's gone on to larger fame as the face of rational skepticism concerning all claims of paranormal reality – be they claims of ESP or claims of unexplainable circumstantial phenomena – by dangling a $1 Million reward for anyone that can replicate ESP or the ability to generate paranormal phenomenon within the laboratory setting of his choosing. So far, no one has relieved the man of his $1 Million prize, and it never fails that some Internet forum defender of common sense will show up with that one fact as proof that there is much less to Heaven and Earth than is dreamt of in anyone's philosophy, especially if that philosophy includes what cannot be replicated in a wind tunnel, a glass beaker, a supercollider, or an equation mathematically balanced out on a blackboard with chalk. It's to these sober-thinking reality police that I want to dedicate this moment of my own time, as I share a wonderful apocryphal tale that I ran across years ago

 

As anyone with a cursory knowledge of science and the Scientific Method knows, getting to "settled science" is a long process that begins with hypothesis, which progresses to theory, and if all indications warrant it, on to settled science. And this is how it's been since the 1600's (give or take somewhat). As to how a hypothesis progresses to theory, it's a fairly strict process that involves the notion's ability to be observed and tested in a manner that allows the results of that testing to also be observed. Fairly straightforward enough. Well, until you get into fields of science where direct observation is practically impossible; meaning that in a practical sense, the hypothesis cannot be directly observed and therefore any and all testing results cannot be directly observed. 

Back when the Scientific Method was devised, what could not be directly observed was relegated to metaphysics, and not even considered approachable as a scientific inquiry. That changed as telescopes and microscopes began to extend our vision beyond our normal sensory capacity, and what was observable became more and more separated from what we could actually see or hear or touch, taste or smell. As this became the case, inductive reasoning emerged as the standard strategy concerning how the progression from hypothesis to theory would develop, and as the years passed, theories emerged and some persisted as others were replaced by better theories, and science moved on.

In the 21^st century, especially in cosmology and quantum physics, the capacity to directly perceive and test most of the systems under theoretical examination has become absolutely nonexistent, so scaled representations, math equations, and computer simulations serve as induction stand-ins with testable predictions that are offered in spite of the obvious dielectric that exists between the models being used and the actual systems under examination. As recent hysteria concerning one of our most dependable theoretical platforms – The Standard Model – suggests, it could be argued that this way of establishing theoretical viability has been shown to have its limitations, even if this is not a universally held view. 

Concerning my own appreciation of the role – in general – that experimentation plays in the theoretical determination of Reality (be it physics, cosmology or whatever it is that the Amazing Randi has decided to place in his own gun sights) the following apocryphal tale has always been valuable as an analogy. I've tried to run down the original source for this story, but it's been too many years since I discovered it, and all attempts to Google it using phrases and such have only revealed my own uses of it at various times over the years. In fact, I'm not even convinced that I've remained true to this tale's original moral. I do know, however, that it makes my point concerning the preeminence of experimental predictability as it pertains to scientific validity.

An island native stumbles upon what is for him an odd item. It is a digital wristwatch. The watch – its band having broken – fell off the wrist of a research team member, and remains as the only indication that a modern era human being was on this specific island at some point in the recent past. No other indication persist, and this includes any memories of such a person having been witnessed by any island native inhabitant.

In fact, this island hasn't changed in culture or outer-world awareness at all for many centuries. This lone digital watch, lying in the open on this one path on a remote side of this island, is the very first failure of modern researchers to remain completely unobserved by the stone-age inhabitants of this remote island. Other than the broken watch band, this piece is in perfect working condition, and is properly set to the time zone of this island as it relates to these months of spring and summer.

We'll name this artifact's discoverer XXZXX, and suggest that while he is an intelligent and curious man, he is no more or less than a man of his time and of his culture. XXZXX is certainly not a holy man or a community authority. That said, he's more interested in larger thoughts than the average member of his community, and very sober and analytical in his personal approach to whatever it is that might present itself as a novel indication. As a result, he keeps the discovery of this unusual item to himself, and in his spare time, he devotes himself to studying it.

What he learns immediately is that he's never felt such a smooth surface before, and he has nothing whatsoever to compare its round, flatness to. Perhaps a skipping stone, but even so, this item’s shape and texture is much too precise and as far as XXZXX is concerned, it has the feel of intelligent craftwork. This is obviously not a naturally shaped object. It clearly belonged to someone or something that visited the island. But who?

When XXZXX gets the object to a secluded place for deeper analysis, he realizes that on one of the smooth, flat surfaces, there's a lot of activity happening, and it's happening all by itself. He can't reach the activity with his fingers, but he can watch it happen. To his own mind, it seems alive, even if he can't relate the bizarre shape-shifting behavior to anything he's ever witnessed before.

After some study, he begins to realize that the activity is not at all random; that it is based on a repeating set of patterns. He sees this as a true breakthrough, and commits himself to unlocking the mystery of what this artifact is, and what it means to the larger whole that he understands Reality to be. After all, it exists, as does everything else that shares the world with it. This means that whatever this thing is, it has a role that it serves relative to the rest of Reality. It fits in somewhere, and since it does, he knows that if he can find where it fits in, he'll also discover something equally important about the true nature of what is real. XXZXX is rapidly becoming a scientist.

Over weeks, XXZXX becomes deeply focused on translating the relentless activity that continues just beneath the smooth, hard surface of the artifact he's discovered. What at first seemed chaotic and spastic in its tight, jerky reconfigurations, has become much more organized and evenly measured to XXZXX's observational perspective. The design reconfigurations, while initially appearing to be complete and novel, have, over time, revealed themselves to be progressive and highly predictable. In fact, XXZXX has begun to recognize a series of design patterns that repeat and follow other design patterns. His sketches have begun to form a distinctive body of research concerning the behavior of this artifact, even if he has yet to formulate a larger purpose behind this behavior.

Being a human being, XXZXX hasn't neglected his own need to make larger sense of what his research has revealed to him. His pattern determinations, his careful documentation of each angular design that fills the mysteriously isolated field of activity, his painstaking attention to each empirical indication aside; XXZXX is not immune to the larger speculations concerning this item's true role within the world that he's known to exist as real and dependably so.

One day, XXZXX is, yet again, comparing his notes with the endless design reconfigurations of his artifact, and it suddenly strikes him that each defined pattern is repeated within a larger defined pattern, with each repetition of the lesser pattern triggering a small acknowledgement within the design of the larger pattern. This indicates that there are multiple layers, a structure of patterns, being represented by design configurations. This artifact's cycles are much larger than he suspected. He's definitely breaking new ground in his research of this thing's behavior.

He names the smaller pattern cycles OOAAOO and the larger pattern cycles AAOOAA, and begins charting anew. Over the next few weeks, he's determined that over the course of a full day, the artifact winds through two full AAOOAA cycles. One during the day and one during the night. This is something that he sees as being extremely important, since each AAOOAA cycle can now be tied directly to the span of a day. XXZXX now knows that his artifact's role in Reality has something to do with the occurrence and reoccurrence of each day. It's here, where XXZXX realizes that he might be in over his head, and he brings his artifact and his research to the wisest men in his community; the council of elders.

XXZXX's presentation of the artifact and his months of research stuns the council. These men have centuries of traditional wisdom between them and at their disposal. With their much larger command of what's become reliable interpretations of common and not-so-common empirical evidence, these men are much more capable of determining what XXZXX has discovered. The otherworldly nature of this auto-animate device clearly suggests that it was constructed by beings that are much more powerful and important than any they’ve ever encountered.

When XXZXX experimentally demonstrates the artifact's tracking of the sun's movements via design reconfiguration, they inductively determine that this device is not simply tracking the movement of the sun, but that the beings who created this device used it to control the movements of the sun. They also know that its existence must be kept secret from the community at large, and especially from all enemies of the community.

They ask XXZXX if he's shown anyone else what he's discovered, and when they're assured that he's kept his find completely to himself all along, they have him immediately executed. The watch is then taken to a location, deep within a series of caves, where it is buried and each member of the team that completed this mission is also executed.

To their own interpretation of XXZXX's research, the verdict is obvious. This device controls the cycles of days, seasons, ages, and who knows what else. It's too much power to be allowed to exist among fallible human beings, and for the sake of the entire world, it must be hidden away forever.

Like I said, the original story of the digital watch and the islander belongs to someone else, and is much less dramatic than this, but the moral of the story is the same; the scientific method can take you only so far, and experimental validation (or the failure of experimentation to validate) certainly won't prove to be any more valuable than your own research will allow it to be. XXZXX certainly was able to predict the alignment of design patterns with the sun's movements, but these predictions did nothing to accurately determine the functionality or the larger role of the digital watch. For that, XXZXX would have needed to learn an entirely new perspective concerning time, the Earth as a physical system within the larger solar system, the existence of other cultures with written language and numeral representations, the concept of time measurement, and a laundry list of other necessary data interpretation aids that I'm in no mood to include here.

Yes, XXZXX was able to predict, and yes, the theory that the elders arrived at, as a result of XXZXX's predictions, did offer what they viewed to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for the predicted results, but let's face it, that watch was just a digital watch that had fallen from the wrist of a research team member that had come and gone from that island, unseen by the inhabitants, regardless of what the research and the successful predictions insisted. The fact that these people existed within a Reality that was much larger than they could've ever imagined, was the one factor that would have completely and accurately translated all the other factors they'd dutifully and carefully lined up as being as completely obscure and impenetrable as they would always remain in spite of all scientific examination on their part. And yet, how can anyone ever know what they can't even imagine to be unknown.

Does this mean that all experimental predictions/results should be viewed dismissively? Of course not. It does mean, however, that prediction results (including the inability to devise experiments that can actually obtain prediction results) should be considered as part of a larger context that includes system coherence, the cohesion of functionality within each larger system that contains and therefore is affected by the system under examination, and the nature of the system preparations that are required for a prediction's results to be successful. The more profound the impact of any of these contextual considerations, the less likely it is that experimentation will be substantive as a theoretical proofing determinant.

This is especially true when working to determine the actual nature of Reality as a macro-system. Reality is much larger and much more difficult to slip under a microscope than the most expansive regions of our own universe. Anyone that suggests otherwise is an idiot who needs to sit outside on a clear night and see how many stars he or she can count. Behind each star are countless stars that they'll never see, and even with the best optical telescope, there will be stars that exist behind the furthest observable star, and this is true regardless of what they insist. In fact, even when a radio telescope is employed (making the actual observational connection as much a matter of faith in technology as any paranormal claim is a matter of faith in one's own capacity to accurately interpret a true perception) it's universally acknowledged that an immeasurable expanse – filled with stars, stars and more stars – stretches out behind that very last observable star.

Yesterday's irresponsible metaphysics is today's settled science (viruses and bacteria, for instance), while yesterday's settled science is today's irresponsible hokum (the Aether and the Geocentric Universe, for instance). It'd be good to always keep this fact in your mind as you embrace and dismiss whatever it is that you embrace and dismiss; your opinions concerning natural versus supernatural, life, death and the existence of an afterlife notwithstanding.